You’re doing a lot of mental gymnastics to make this make sense from an accidental perspective. You’ve made up your mind that it was a mistaken intruder.
Me, personally? I have no clue whether he did or didn’t. And considering only he can know that for sure, I think that’s the only reasonable conclusion you can draw.
I certainly have no interest in debating all of these hypothetical motives he could have had.
I have a Yale front door lock tied in to Home Assistant through Zigbee. It’s completely controlled locally.
I own a bed and breakfast. The day a guest arrives, I have homemade apps that get the last 4 digits of their phone numbers and program them into the lock. The day they leave those numbers are deleted from the lock. The lock also runs on schedules. It locks at 10pm and unlocks at 7:30am, unless we have no guests where it just always stays locked.
It’s so so nice. It’s also pretty secure.